TSMC: This year will be a slow year revenue growth of 5-10%, may not be reached

  TSMC held a financial report on the 17th. Although last year's operating results surpassed the brilliant transcripts of revenue and profit, but the semiconductor prospects in 2019 released a negative outlook, Wei Zhejia, president of TSMC, said that it does not include memory. Estimated semiconductor output value increased by 1% annually, so this year is "Slow year", this year's revenue growth rate is about 1-3%, lower than the founder Zhang Zhongmou's previous expectations, 2017-2021 revenue will be able to maintain an annual increase of 5 -10% trend.

TSMC's first quarter financial results this year, the single-season revenue is about 7-74 billion US dollars, the exchange rate is US dollar to NT$30.6, and the single-season revenue is 2233.8-2264.4 billion NT dollars, the quarterly reduction is as high as 21.86% to 22.92%, the third largest single-quarter revenue decline in history. The gross profit margin in the single quarter is about 43-45%, and the operating profit ratio in the single quarter is estimated to be 31-33%.

According to Liu Deyin, chairman of TSMC, the situation in the first quarter of this year is indeed relatively poor, but it is not particularly bad compared with the same period last year.

Wei Zhejia said that it is expected that the output value of semiconductors will only increase by 1% this year. The foundry of the wafers is even more likely to show zero growth. Regardless of whether the US dollar or the new Taiwan dollar is used, TSMC's revenue will only maintain a slight increase this year, but the profit will be hard. TSMC said that the first quarter was a comprehensive weakness, and the current inventory level is still high. It is estimated that it will not end until the end of this year and return to normal seasonal levels.

TSMC said that this year's revenue growth rate is about 1-3%. However, looking forward to 2020-2021, TSMC remains optimistic and will maintain strong growth.

TSMC said that the impact of the trade war is mainly to cause uncertainty and affect demand. If this uncertain performance slows down, it will be positive for demand.

Looking ahead to the main end-use applications in 2019, mobile devices will continue to grow. High-speed computing (HPC) can maintain growth without mining, but if mining is added, there will be a 2-digit drop, and IOT (Internet of Things) Two-digit growth, automotive electronics are flat. As for the proportion of revenue in 2018, mobile phones accounted for 45%, HPC (including mining) 32%, IOT 6%, vehicle 5%, consumer electronics 6%, and other 6%.

In terms of process status, Wei Zhejia pointed out that the revenue ratio of 7nm and 7nm+ (enhanced version) will exceed 25% this year.

TSMC pointed out that this year's variables include the overall environment and the status of the four major products, but the most important is the supply and demand situation, because the current downstream inventory is still high.

However, TSMC still maintains its previous arguments for this year's capital expenditures. It is estimated to be 10-11 billion US dollars. Although there are still 10 billion US dollars, the ceiling is slightly lower. Chief Financial Officer He Limei explained that 80% of them will invest in advanced processes, including The construction and expansion of 7nm, 5nm and 3nm, mainly based on 5nm, in response to the 2020 plan, another 10% into the advanced packaging and other fields.

According to the status of the Nanjing plant, TSMC said that at the end of this year or early next year, the monthly production capacity will reach 20,000. Regarding whether the government department is concerned about Huawei's situation, Wei Zhejia directly said: "No."