According to icinsights reports, due to the Covid-19 pandemic and tensions in Sino-US trade relations, most IC suppliers had weak demand in the first half of this year and generally poor sales performance. However, some IC suppliers still believe that they will achieve better performance in the second half of this year.
TSMC is the world's largest semiconductor foundry and a key supplier of 7/5nm application processor equipment. Figure 1 shows the actual performance of TSMC in 1H20 2020. As shown in the figure, although TSMC expects its full-year sales to increase by more than 20% this year, IC Insights believes that its 2H20/1H20 sales will grow by 8%, and the full-year growth rate will reach 24%.
For the third quarter, research institutions predict that TSMC’s revenue will continue to rise year-on-year, and they expect to reach 11.35 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.95 billion US dollars from the 9.4 billion US dollars in the third quarter of last year, an increase of 20.7%.
icinsights believes that there is no doubt that Apple's demand for top application processors will become the driving force for TSMC's growth. TSMC released its billionth 7nm IC shipment in the second half of 2020, and is expected to mass-produce devices made using its 5nm process technology. Overall, the company expects 5nm shipments in 2H20 will bring about 3.5 billion US dollars in revenue, accounting for 8% of total sales in 2020.
When discussing actual sales performance in the second quarter of 2020, Intel, the world's largest semiconductor supplier, set its full-year sales growth forecast at 4%. However, Intel’s expectation for 2H20/1H20 is a 10% decline in revenue (Figure 2). The company attributes its strong sales in 1H20 and weak expectations in 2H20 to some customers who have increased inventory. Given the uncertainty of trade issues, the "safety stock" of these parts is expected to be exhausted in the second half of this year.
STMicroelectronics is the world's fourth largest supplier of analog integrated circuits and a key automotive equipment manufacturer. It has high hopes for 2H20. After a sharp decline of 19% in 1H20/2H19, the company expects 2H20/1H20 sales to grow strongly by 19% (Figure 3). The company's sales growth in the second half of this year is expected to be due to the rebound in the automotive industry due to the exceptional weakness in 1H20 and the increase in industrial demand due to the global economy showing a certain degree of stability. However, even after a strong 2H20, ST's total semiconductor sales may drop by 1% this year.
