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[IC Insights] Although DRAM sales fell 38%, it will remain the largest IC market

IC Insights recently released the latest mid-year McClean report for 2019. The report includes IC Insights' ranking of the 33 largest IC product categories based on its 2019 expected sales and unit shipments, of which 33 IC product categories are regulated by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization, the top five IC products. The categories are shown in Figure 1.


Although sales are expected to fall 38% this year, the DRAM market will again be the largest in the IC product category in 2019, with sales reaching $62 billion, down from $99.4 billion in 2018. IC Insights believes that the DRAM market will account for 17% of the total IC market in 2019. In contrast, DRAM accounted for 23.6% of the total IC market in 2018.


The NAND flash market is expected to decline from second to third in this year's ranking, with total sales falling 32% to $40.6 billion. Overall, the DRAM and NAND flash categories are expected to account for 29% of the total IC market of $357.7 billion this year, compared to 38% in 2018.


In the past ten years, DRAMs typically accounted for 14-16% of total IC sales, and NAND flash memory accounted for about 11-12%. However, due to tight storage supply, average selling prices climbed, leading to two categories in 2017 and 2018. The sales were violent. In 2018, DRAM has surpassed MPU sales for the first time since the 1990s.


IC Insights expects to replace NAND flash in 2019 as the second-largest mainstream microprocessor for traditional PCs, servers, mainframes and a wide range of embedded processing applications. With PC shipments showing their first growth in five years and strong demand for cloud computing data center and Internet enterprise server shipments, sales of this type of MPU increased by 11.0% in 2018, reaching a record $53.8 billion. .


It is also expected that this type of MPU will slow down by about 2.5% in 2019, mainly due to the slowdown in global economic growth, the uncertainty caused by the US-China trade war and market chaos, and the impact of excess inventory of data center servers after high growth in 2018. .


Computers and Peripherals - Special-purpose logic devices and mobile application processors are expected to rank in the top five categories, respectively, and each category maintains the same ranking as in 2018. It is expected that sales of the top five IC categories will not increase until 2019.


In terms of unit shipments, four of the top five categories are expected to be analog devices this year. In 2019, IC shipments are expected to reach 301.7 billion, and analog devices will account for 55%. Among them, power management analog devices will account for 21%, even exceeding the sum of the latter two types of shipments. Shipments of dedicated analog devices for automotive and industrial applications are expected to increase by at least 9% each year, while total analog devices will decline by 5%.