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Goldman Sachs: If the Sino-US trade agreement is reached, it will affect Taiwan’s annual export of 4 billion US dollars.

  On March 11, according to the Economic Daily, Goldman Sachs said that once China and the United States reach a trade agreement, the mainland will procure large quantities of US products, and Taiwanese technology makers may be greatly affected. South Korea, Japan and Malaysia will also be affected.

Goldman Sachs analysis pointed out that if the mainland turned to the United States to purchase semiconductors, Taiwan and South Korea will have the biggest impact in the short term, and the semiconductor market has been oversupplied, and stocks have climbed all the way. It is estimated that about 4 billion US dollars of chip exports will be affected every year in Taiwan.

Based on public comments and news reports, Goldman Sachs concluded that the mainland may increase US purchases of US$125 billion annually in US products, of which US$30 billion is agricultural products, US$23 billion is oil and mineral products, and US$21 billion is semiconductors and other electronic components.

Goldman Sachs believes that the biggest damage to the current trade model is semiconductors. In the agricultural and energy commodity markets, other buyers can easily replace the mainland's location.

According to the IC Insights report, mainland China has been the largest consumer market for integrated circuits since 2005. However, the IC self-sufficiency rate as of 2018 is only 15.3%, still relying on a large number of semiconductor imports.

Although the Sino-US trade war was awkward, although it had caused a big impact on the entire semiconductor industry, many Taiwanese factories also sneaked off because of the transfer effect. Now that the war is gradually stopped, although it is a good thing for the entire industry, for some Taiwanese manufacturers, it may be more worried.